Written by West + Main Realtor, Michelle Schwinghammer
As a member of the Denver Metro Association of Realtor's Market Trends Committee, I receive frequent requests to analyze current and historical market statistics. The big question this year is, “How will the presidential election affect the housing market?”
The prevailing wisdom is that presidential elections shouldn’t affect the housing market because the market moves in cycles longer than any single election season and has major competing variables. On the other hand, real estate pros work with a significant proportion of buyers and sellers who simply prefer to sit on the sidelines without any specific reason for doing so.
I see something that may shed some light on this question. Here is a graph of month-over-month change of the median closing price for all homes sold in the greater Metro Denver area since 2010. The data include all home sales from Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Boulder, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson, and Park Counties.
In the Denver Metro area over last three election cycles there was more month-to-month home price volatility in the two years preceding an election, and more stability with traditional seasonal patterns in the two years after a presidential election.
Also, the election-year flatlines of the November to January period appear to support the notion of activity “paralysis” that real estate professionals report on the ground today.
With election years of 2012, 2016, and 2020 painting a picture thus far, we will have to wait to see what comes after our next election. But if past is prologue, we may see a return to normalizing real estate conditions and greater stability in home prices in 2025, no matter the election outcome.
Read more at SchwingState.com
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