We've listened to the pundits, suffered through the debates, scrutinized the polls, and squinted at that ever-changing electoral map. Everyone, it seems, is desperately trying to get a true read on what's going to happen, in one of the most bitterly contentious presidential elections our nation has ever seen.
There is no shortage of critical issues hanging in the balance: the pandemic, the economy, national health insurance, climate change, race relations, oh my! It seems at times that the United States has never been more sharply divided.
But where do the deeply etched red-state/blue-state splits really come from? And how much can the huge housing differences across the nation tell us about how we got here—and where we're going? We turned to the data to find out.
Realtor.com analyzed eight major housing indicators, to see how greatly they diverged between red, blue, and swing states.
To come up with findings, realtor.com® analyzed internal data to come up with metrics for home and rental price, price appreciation, home size, and inventory. We took the age of homes and the homeownership rate from U.S. Census Bureau data. The second-home information came from Optimal Blue, a real estate data firm specializing in lending information.
We can't pinpoint the exact cause of the rancor that's developed between many Republicans and Democrats. But we can look at the substantial housing differences that may be contributing to the divide. They include everything from blue-state denizens paying a whole lot more for their homes and rentals, to those in red states having larger homes to live in.
"Life can be really different, depending on where you live," says realtor.com's chief economist, Danielle Hale. "That's reflected in different real estate norms, and it has a role in how you view your life and your priorities and values."
She adds, "Owning a home literally gives people a stake in the ground, and that seems to translate into [more of] an incentive to vote."
The analysis identified 20 red states, 17 blue states plus Washington, DC, and 13 swing states. We used Politico's designations to break out swing states. They included Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
So as President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden enter the homestretch, what are the some of the biggest housing differences between red, blue, and swing states that might help push them to the finish line?
1. Where are home prices the highest—and the lowest?
Red: $249,650*
Blue: $424,500
Swing: $310,698
Home prices are top of mind for just about everyone. A strong housing market has traditionally been a sign of a strong economy. This year, everything is topsy-turvy, though, with home prices shooting up to new heights in most of the country, despite a recession.
2. Where have prices risen the most since the last presidential election?
Red: 30.9%**
Blue: 26.5%
Swing: 35%
Home appreciation, a nightmare for first-time buyers and a godsend for sellers, is strongest in the current swing states, which tend to be going through a demographic shift.
Many of these purple places have become the new 'It' areas to be. They have growing job markets, creating all kinds of new opportunities; lots of culinary, cultural, and recreational amenities; and lower prices than the big cities on the coasts.
3. Where has the number of homes for sale fallen the most since the 2016 election?
Red: -54%**
Blue: -49%
Swing: -59%
The historic lack of homes on the market has become one of the biggest challenges for buyers. Even those with steady jobs, hefty down payments, and the ability to secure a mortgage with record-low rates are struggling to find a home of their own.
The number of properties for sale is down the most in swing states, for the same reasons why home appreciation is the highest there: They're becoming increasingly desirable places to live, so they're attracting new residents. Builders can't keep up with the demand. So it's tougher to find a home, and prices are rising.
For more housing indicators, to see how greatly they diverged between red, blue, and swing states, visit Realtor.com.
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