After a waterfall dive, purchase applications data finds its footing for now
Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market.
Purchase application data came out on Wednesday and the week-to-week data was down 3%, breaking the streak of four straight weeks of growth. The year-over-year data declined 40%, the smallest year-over-year decline since Oct. 19.
For months I have been saying we were going to have challenging comps from October to January because last year at this time mortgage volume was rising — a rare event this late in the year.
Because of that, we should all expect declines of 35%-45% year over year during this period. If things were getting weaker, 53%-57% negative year-over-year declines would be in play. However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.
The bleeding has stopped
First and foremost, the bleeding has stopped in this data line, but the context is critical here. We had a waterfall dive in this data line and adjusting to the population, we hit an all-time low, so let’s put the bounce from the lows in context. This isn’t like the COVID-19 recovery where the data was getting noticeably better on a year-over-year metric; the purchase application data just stopped going down.
For now, just think of it as stabilization and we need to see more of this to make a valid premise that the worst is behind us.
As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. Accordingly, we also haven’t had a credit bust in the data line.
What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does. Since they were distressed forced sellers, inventory skyrocketed in 2006 and stayed very elevated in 2007 and 2008.
As we can see below, none of that is happening today because the seller isn’t stressed.
Total inventory levels
NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22 million
Historically inventory levels range between 2 million and 2.5 million, the equilibrium balance between a buyer and seller marketplace that has been here for four decades. Only from 2006-2011 did we see this break due to forced sellers who couldn’t buy homes.
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