A now-viral post has been making the rounds on real estate X (formerly known as Twitter), showing a sign outside a construction site 45 minutes north of Tampa, FL. It reads: “NEW HOMES ZERO DOWN.”
“It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008,” the caption warns.
With builder incentives ramping up and inventory growing in select markets, comparisons to the 2008 housing crisis and financial collapse are surfacing again. But are today’s homebuyers facing the same risks?
"I think the key lesson from comparing 2008 to today's housing market is that context really matters," says Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®. "While the low level of home sales might seem reminiscent of the mid-2000s, the driving factors are very different."
We spoke to six housing experts to share what they learned from the housing crash and how today’s buyers can make smarter, safer decisions in 2025.
Echoes of 2008—and where the similarities stop
In some fast-growing markets, like parts of Florida and Texas, today’s housing trends might feel eerily familiar: rising inventory, sluggish demand, and homebuilders scrambling to offer steep incentives.
Real estate analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure App and author of the X post, highlighted a development where 12 newly built homes are sitting on the market.
According to a builder’s agent on-site, the company was offering 0% down mortgages and even preparing to convert some homes to rent-to-own—moves that Gerli says echo the last housing downturn.
In another X thread, Gerli pointed out that national builder Lennar has offered incentives totaling 13% of its revenue on new home deliveries, the largest seen in over a decade.
While these tactics may feel reminiscent of 2008, the experts we spoke to weren’t so convinced.
For one, unlike the conditions that led to the last crash, today’s price growth is being driven primarily by real supply and demand, not speculative buying or reckless lending.
“Today’s supply-demand balance is completely different from 2008,” says Robert Dietz, senior vice president and chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. “Today, we face a structural deficit of housing. ... In contrast [in 2008], we had too much supply and sources of phantom demand brought about by poor underwriting standards, which resulted in a steep drop for home prices.”
Lending practices have also changed. While borrowing standards in the mid-2000s were lax, most buyers today are highly qualified thanks to the regulations of the Dodd-Frank Act, and it’s much harder to borrow more than you can afford.
“I don’t really see a lot of parallels in the current market to that of 2008,” adds Mason Whitehead, a home loan specialist with Churchill Mortgage. “Yes, housing prices are up, but that’s based on supply and demand this time, rather than speculation and irresponsible lending.”
Most strikingly, though, 2025's greatest protection against collapse is the financial strength of homeowners.
"Economic stress among homeowners in 2008 prompted those in a precarious financial position who were underwater, or owed more than their home was worth, to leave their homes," says Hale.
But today is much different.
"Even if home prices were to fall by up to 20% overnight, there would still be more equity in today's homes as a share of value than was in the market before the decline in 2008," she explains. "This is not to say that all individuals are in the exact same position, and certainly there are some who would find job loss or other financial hardship challenging. But the total picture is such that, in aggregate, homeowners are in a much better position."
In short: Builder incentives may be grabbing headlines, but experts say they reflect regional cooling in overheated markets—not a repeat of the last national crisis.
What buyers should take from the 2008 playbook
Even if today’s housing market isn’t a repeat of 2008, that doesn’t mean the lessons from that time don’t still apply. In fact, experts agree that many of the same habits that got buyers into trouble back then—like stretching beyond their means or focusing too much on short-term gains—can still create risk today.
Lesson 1: Live within your means
“One of the biggest lessons people should have learned from the 2008 financial crises was to not overextend yourself,” says Whitehead. “Living within your means and understanding that whether or not you can afford something comes down to more than ‘Can I make the monthly payment?’ is very important.”
H. Jack Miller, president & CEO at Gelt Financial, echoes that advice: “Homebuyers should not overextend themselves even if they find someone to lend them the money,” he says. “Buy what you can comfortably afford—and even a little less so you can sleep at night if bad things happen.”
In short: Just because you can qualify for a larger mortgage doesn’t mean you should take it. Having a budget, and sticking to it, matters more than ever in a market where prices and costs can shift quickly.
Lesson 2: Build a buffer
It’s also important to prepare for the unexpected. Having a financial cushion can prevent short-term setbacks from snowballing into long-term problems.
“Set a goal of having three months of expenses in savings as a reserve or emergency fund,” Whitehead recommends. “Many people’s financial problems start with an unexpected expense or job loss, so they immediately have to use credit cards—and that becomes a slippery slope.”
Lesson 3: Choose the right loan product
Beyond your budget, it’s smart to think through the structure of your loan. While adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) may offer lower initial payments, they can become risky if rates continue to fluctuate.
“ARMs can seem attractive at times … but if rates spike, you are going to have to deal with that too,” says Adam Hamilton, CEO of REI Hub. “In times of uncertainty, fixed-rate mortgages can be the best choice because they allow your mortgage payments to remain predictable.”
Buying in 2025
Experts agree that the key to buying in 2025 isn’t about trying to time the market perfectly. It’s about knowing your financial limits, understanding the full cost of homeownership, and choosing a mortgage that works for you—not just today, but in the years to come.
“Creating a budget with a buffer for ‘just-in-case’ scenarios—like home insurance and taxes increasing— and worst-case scenarios—like a housing downturn—is of the utmost importance,” says Evan Luchaco, a home loan specialist with Churchill Mortgage. “It’s a comforting thought as a homebuyer to know that even if the worst-case scenario happens, you’re still going to be all right.”
Read more at Realtor.com
Related Links
If there is a home that you would like more information about, if you are considering selling a property, or if you have questions about the housing market in your neighborhood, please reach out. We’re here to help.
