housing market

4 Housing Market Myths Hurting Today’s Buyers and Sellers

 
 

The housing market has been decidedly stuck of late.

Sellers with low mortgage rates are holding on to their homes, leaving buyers with scant listings to choose from.

And buyers who do find a house face substantial economic challenges as median home prices and mortgage rates remain high.

With sellers and buyers at an impasse, misconceptions and outright myths are popping up on both sides about the state of the market on social channels and forums.

However, some of the supposed housing issues that are coming up time and again aren’t true. Here are the four biggest myths about the current housing market and why experts say they’re wrong.

1. The housing market is about to crash, just like in 2008

Today’s buy-sell stalemate has some would-be buyers almost hoping that we are in a bubble—that it will burst and lead to plentiful homes available at fire-sale prices.

No one can blame a buyer dealing with the double whammy of higher home prices and interest rates for hoping for a lucky break. But the reality is that the 2008 housing market collapse tripped a recession that caused record job losses. And job loss doesn’t further anyone’s financial dreams.

Even if we are in a bubble right now—and most experts say it’s hard to call it until it’s in the rearview mirror—conditions are not at all like they were in 2008.

Unlike today, there was a glut of new homes being built then, sellers were trying to attract buyers, and homebuyers could qualify for a mortgage with little to no money down.

“That access to credit included a surge in lenders offering loans to buyers with lower credit scores, or subprime borrowers,” says Chris Ragland, principal at Ragland Capital.

Easy credit might sound good in theory, but some loans were adjustable-rate mortgages with a low “introductory teaser” rate. And once the introductory rate ended and the loan adjusted to a higher rate, some buyers could no longer afford their monthly payments.

“Subprime borrowers in particular who suffered a job loss had little to no accumulated equity in their homes,” says Ragland. So when the economic downturn came, they were immediately underwater on their loans and many defaulted.

None of these conditions is true now. Today, almost half of all homeowners have more than 50% equity.

“Laws were passed in 2010 to strengthen verification of a borrower’s ability to repay a loan,” says Ragland.

And the drivers of today’s home prices are entirely different.

“The 2020 to 2022 price increase was driven by an inventory shortage and unusually low interest rates,” says Bruce Ailion, attorney in Atlanta.

2. Owners have such good rates, they will never sell

One of the biggest complaints about today’s housing market is that there just aren’t enough homes for sale. And given the unbeatable interest rates available two years ago, when many bought or refinanced, what would make sellers budge?

“Mortgage rates were forced lower than they should have been, lower than they likely ever will be again,” says Ailion. So when you look at it from the seller’s point of view, it doesn’t make sense to give up a low long-term rate.

But in reality, there are always life events that force homeowners to sell.

People get new jobs and have to relocate. Growing families need more room or want to be in a particular school district. Retirees downsize or move to a better climate. Seniors move to be closer to family or go into assisted living. And their home will go up for sale.

3. As rates rise, home prices will drop

Many would-be homebuyers have hoped that higher interest rates would bring down home prices. But the relationship between interest rates and home prices is complex.

“Interestingly, the increase in interest rates has not resulted in a decline in prices in most markets,” says Ailion.

In fact, home prices have been all over the place this year and vary from city to city. Home prices are still being driven by inventory. And in the most popular locations, an updated home that’s move-in ready might still get multiple offers.

“Some buyers are dating the rate and marrying the house,” Ailion explains. “Today’s high interest rates can be refinanced in the future. And today’s housing prices will likely be higher when those lower interest rates return.”

4. Good-credit buyers are subsidizing buyers with bad credit

This myth blew up over a misunderstanding about government-backed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans and a new fee structure.

Fannie and Freddie are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) on a mission to make mortgages more accessible to first-time homebuyers with lower incomes but good credit. They don’t issue loans directly but work with lenders to lower their risk by guaranteeing certain loans should the borrower default.

The organizations also purchase other lenders’ loans on the secondary market and sell them to investors as mortgage-backed securities. This allows lenders to keep lending to new borrowers.

Fannie and Freddie are essential organizations in the mortgage industry. About 70% of all mortgages are GSE-backed. So they can set requirements and establish fees.

The new fee structure eliminated upfront fees for first-time homebuyers. At the same time, it increased fees for other loans that are outside the organizations’ stated mission and borrowers who don’t need a leg up: namely, second-home loans, high-balance loans, and cash-out refinances.

It really had nothing to do with a borrower’s credit score.

“It’s a myth,” says Ailion. “Buyers with poor credit always pay a higher interest rate than buyers with good credit.”

Read more at Realtor.com

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What to expect from the housing market in the second half of 2024, according to real estate experts

 
 

Experts are torn about where exactly the housing market is headed in the latter half of the year.

“Mostly, we think the housing market is going to improve over the next half of the year,” Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, a real estate brokerage site, said on a May 22 appearance on CNBC’s “Money Movers.”

“We’ve hit rock bottom in the first quarter of 2024 and I would expect the housing market to do a little bit better,” Kelman said.

Other experts are less sure about the market’s prospects for improvement.

“It’s a very strange market, and it’s kind of hard to predict,” said Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate.com.

Here are some of what Ostrowski, Kelman and other real estate experts say could shape the real estate market in the second half of 2024:

More homes are coming on the market

The mortgage rate lock-in effect seems to be wearing off, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow.

The mortgage rate lock-in effect, or the golden handcuff effect, kept any homeowners with extremely low mortgage rates from listing their homes last year as they didn’t want to finance a new home at a much higher interest rate. 

During the week ended June 1, newly listed homes grew 2.1% from a year ago, according to a weekly housing trends report by Realtor.com. In the same period, available inventory of homes for sale grew 35.5% compared with last year, Realtor.com found.

In his CNBC appearance, Kelman also pointed out that demand for homeownership remains high, especially among buyers who have been putting off the home purchase for a long time.

While the market is seeing more listings, the boost in supply is not enough to attract buyers, according to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.

“Listings have trended generally upward of late, suggesting to us that a rising number of current homeowners can no longer put off moving,” said Duncan in a release earlier this month. “However, we believe the ongoing affordability challenges are likely to weigh on how quickly these new listings convert to actual sales.”

‘Some movement’ on interest rates

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slid to 6.99% on June 6 after climbing to 7.22% on May 20, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Mortgage rates are down a bit from May highs, but that hasn’t spurred a surge of competition among buyers in the housing market,” Divounguy said.

Affordability remains a top priority for buyers and rates stayed above 7% for long.

 
 

Many experts believe the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates in the upcoming board meeting on June 12. However, the National Association of Realtors forecast a potential interest rate cut by the fall of this year, according to Jessica Lautz, the NAR’s deputy chief economist.

By late September, “perhaps we will start seeing movement on the Fed funds rate,” she said. “That’s at least what our hope is.”

While mortgage rates are forecasted to come down to 6.5% in the fourth quarter, homebuyers may not see much relief given rising home prices amid limited housing inventory, noted Lautz.

“It’s very possible that they’re ending up paying the same mortgage payment because they’re purchasing a home that while has a lower interest rate, has a higher price point,” she said.

‘It’s hard to foresee prices really cooling’

While the housing market has slowed in terms of the number of transactions, prices haven’t soften despite broader expectations, Ostrowski explained.

The median home sale price across the U.S. increased to $392,200, a 4.4% jump from a year earlier, according to Redfin.

“It’s hard to foresee prices really cooling or declining nationally,” said Ostrowski. “It seems likely we’re going to see another record high for home prices this summer.”

Some metropolitan areas in the U.S. have seen prices soften. Home-sale prices declined 2.9% in Austin and 1.2% in San Antonio and Fort Worth, Texas, according to Redfin data. Home prices cooled 0.9% in Portland, Oregon, the firm noted.

However, many of these areas saw major price growth during the Covid-19 pandemic, with prices jumping as much as 45%, said Lautz. Buyers might not see much relief in affordability despite recent price declines given those pandemic-era runups.

About 90% of metro markets posted home price gains in 2024, according to NAR data. While price points may be softening in some local markets, the “vast majority of markets are seeing home price growth,” said Lautz.

Correction: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slid to 6.99% on June 6 after climbing to 7.22% on May 20, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve. An earlier version misstated the moves.

Read more at CNBC.com

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The Number of U.S. Homes for Sale Is Slowly Returning to Normal: An ‘Incredible Trend,’ Economists Say

 
 

Homebuyers willing to brave today’s high mortgage rates might at least be delighted to find that they have plenty of homes to consider.

In the latest monthly housing report from Realtor.com®, the overall number of homes for sale in May marks seven months of growth.

“The biggest eye-catcher for me is the fact that inventory is rising sharply,” says Realtor.com senior economist Ralph McLaughlin. “There are 35.2% more homes on the market than this time last year, an incredible trend in the direction of normality.”

“While the housing market is still in the seller’s territory, it is expected to shift in a buyer-friendly direction as mortgage rates resume their decline over the next year and the number of homes for sale increases,” says Realtor.com economic data manager Sabrina Speianu.

Home prices rose seasonally

As is typical in the housing market’s warmer months, the national median list price continued to increase seasonally by 0.3% to $442,500 in May, compared with $430,000 in April. (Last year’s May median list price was $441,000.)

Moderately steady home prices are due to a rising number of affordable homes hitting the market.

“The inventory of lower-priced homes is rising faster than other segments,” says McLaughlin. “There are 46.6% more homes on the market in the $200,000 to $350,000 range, something inventory and price-constrained buyers will surely welcome.”

In addition to the list price, buyers and sellers might want to examine the median list price per square foot, which rose by 52.7% this May compared with May 2019.

“The price-per-square-foot metric is an important one to pay attention to because the change in that metric is a more solid measure of how much more a home is worth over time than looking at changes in median list price,” says McLaughlin.

And here’s more good news for sellers who bought before the COVID-19 pandemic: Namely, the typical listed home price this May grew by a whopping 37.5% compared with May 2019.

How high mortgage rates have hit housing

Although listing levels are rising overall, high mortgage rates have kept some sellers on the sidelines.

This May saw 6.2% more fresh homes for sale than this same month last year. But that’s almost half of April’s new listings levels, which saw a 12.2% growth rate.

“Sellers—who are often buyers themselves—responded to rising mortgage rates with some caution,” says Speianu. “The growth in newly listed homes dipped, although newly listed homes still remained higher than the previous year.”

And if mortgage rates drop later on as anticipated, more sellers are bound to jump into the market.

“We expect selling activity to normalize as rates inch their way down over the next year,” says Speianu.

Listings levels are up overall in the biggest U.S. cities

In May, all four regions of the U.S. saw active housing stock grow over the previous year.

The South continues to lead as the region with the most listing growth year over year, hitting 47.2% in May.

The West saw a 34.5% growth in the number of homes for sale, while the Midwest saw a 20.5% increase. The Northwest was far behind the rest of the country, with growth coming in at 9.4%.

The number of homes for sale also increased in all of the 50 largest metros compared with last year.

The metros with the most growth in homes on the market were Tampa, FL (+87.4%), Phoenix (+80.3%), and Orlando, FL (+78.0%).

“These markets were booming during the [COVID-19] pandemic frenzy, and homebuyers couldn’t get enough inventory during those years,” says McLaughlin. “But the growth in inventory now suggests those markets are normalizing as the pendulum swings back in the opposite direction.”

Only 12 of the 50 largest metro areas saw higher inventory levels in May compared with typical 2017 to 2019 levels. However, it’s important to note that this figure is up from only seven metros last month.

The top metros with housing stock above pre-pandemic levels were mostly in the South and West and included Austin, TX (+33.6%), San Antonio, TX (+31.8%), and Denver (+22.0%).

While listings levels this May are much improved compared with the previous three years, “it is still down 34.2% compared with typical 2017 to 2019 levels,” explains Speianu.

Homes continue to sell quickly

The typical home spent 44 days on the market this May, which is one day extra compared with last year.

A greater supply of homes on the listing pages might be the reason it took homes slightly longer to sell.

“May marks the second month in a row where homes spent more time on the market compared with the previous year as inventory continues to grow and home sales remain sluggish,” says Speianu. “However, the time a typical home spends on the market is eight days less than the average May from 2017 to 2019.”

Read more at Realtor.com

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‘The Best of Both Worlds’: The Spring Housing Market Might Just Change Everything

 
 

It’s not just the temperatures that are warming up right now.

If you didn’t already know, spring is the start of the busiest homebuying period of the year. Houses ooze curb appeal with early flowers in full bloom. Buyers don’t mind trudging to open houses in nicer weather. And families start scouring home listings, hoping to move in just a few short months when the kids are out of school.

This spring is also the housing market’s make-or-break moment, coming a year after high list prices and mortgage rates—and a lack of available properties—stalled home sales.

So what should homebuyers and sellers expect this season? Will asking prices and mortgage rates finally ebb? Will more homes come onto the market? Will sellers have to—gasp—negotiate? Or will a proposal by President Joe Biden to make housing more affordable nip the spring market in the bud?

“Where we are right now is the best of both worlds. Price increases are slowing, which is good for buyers, and prices are still relatively high, which is good for sellers,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “There are some optimistic signs, but we haven’t seen that yet translate into more sales.”

She expects sales will be better than in 2023, but they will be down from the surges seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and from a more typical year.

“We’re moving in the right direction,” says Hale.

One positive sign for the housing market is that Americans are more optimistic about buying and selling homes, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index. About two-thirds of consumers, 65%, said it was a good time to sell a home in February.

However, just 19% of folks said it’s a good time to purchase a home, according to the index. And that was an increase from 17% in January.

That’s because housing is still incredibly expensive. Nationally, list prices clocked in at a median of $415,500 in February, according to the most recent Realtor.com data. Mortgage rates also remain high, averaging 6.74% in the week ending March 14, according to Freddie Mac.

“The housing market is at a stalemate with high rates,” says Devyn Bachman, chief operating officer at John Burns Research & Consulting, a company that works with builders. “Until something changes, we’re kind of stuck where we are.”

Good news for buyers: More affordable homes are coming

The best news for buyers this spring is more—and cheaper—homes are going up for sale.

There were nearly 15% more homes for sale in February than a year earlier, according to Realtor.com data. That alone could jolt the housing market a bit if more “For Sale” signs continue to appear. However, the nation is still suffering from a housing shortage even with all of that new inventory.

Many homeowners chose to stay put to hold on to the ultralow mortgage rates they locked in during the pandemic. But now, they might be starting to move, even if they have to stomach a higher mortgage rate to do so.

“Listings are up a bit as life events and job changes are putting increasing pressure on locked-in homeowners to sell their homes,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Homeowners may also be slowly coming to the realization that mortgage rates aren’t going back anywhere near the rate on their existing mortgage.”

Buyers can also rejoice in more inexpensive homes going up for sale. The number of properties priced between $200,000 and $350,000 shot up 20.6% year over year in February.

More than half of these less expensive homes, or 55.5%, were in the Southern region of the country.

“The biggest need for homes is in those lower-priced categories,” says Hale. “We’re starting to see the market give buyers the choices they can afford.”

More home sellers are also cutting prices. About 14.6% of all homes on the market underwent a price reduction in February, up from 13.2% in February of last year.

Buyers shouldn’t get too comfortable, though.

“Spring is always more active than the rest of the year. We’re more likely to see bidding wars and above-ask offers in spring than in other seasons,” says Hale. However, “there will be less of that this year.”

Mortgage rates are a wild card this spring

The success of the spring selling season might hinge on which direction mortgage rates head next.

They came down from nearly 8% last fall to the 6% range in mid-December. This was thanks to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates, which would likely result in lower mortgage rates as well.

But with inflation stubbornly remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed may choose to keep its rates higher for longer. That is expected to keep mortgage rates high as well.

“There will be more of a roller coaster in mortgage rates than previously expected,” says Hale. “Buyers are going to have to stay on their toes and be prepared to adjust.”

This time around, however, buyers might be more willing to accept a higher rate on a mortgage they can refinance when rates come down.

When rates first started rising rapidly in 2022, many found the prospect of a mortgage rate in the high 6% range financially terrifying. But after rates almost hit 8% last fall, they’re looking a lot better to many aspiring homeowners.

“Buyers and sellers have come to terms with these higher rates,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of Bright MLS, which covers the mid-Atlantic region of the country. “I do think we’re going to see them above 6% for the rest of the year.”

Even if rates do drop, home prices could potentially rise to make up the difference. That’s because more buyers will jump into the market, making it even more competitive. That could lead to more bidding wars and offers over the asking price.

President Biden might have threatened the success of the spring market

The housing proposals Biden unveiled at the State of the Union, which are designed to make housing more affordable, could also inadvertently endanger the spring market.

Biden, the Democratic Party’s 2024 presumptive nominee, would like to offer middle-class homebuyers tax credits of up to $5,000 for two years and middle-class homeowners tax credits worth up to $10,000 if they sell starter homes to other owner-occupants.

“President Biden’s proposals are just proposals and unlikely to become law, at least not anytime soon,” says Zandi.

However, many potential buyers and sellers might still hold off on entering the market.

“They might wait until they can get the tax credit money instead of moving ahead with plans,” says Hale. “It could cause a temporary drop in housing demand.”

Bidding wars and offers over the asking price could return

Despite high home prices and mortgage rates, buyers are expected to face a lot of competition over a still-limited number of homes for sale.

“Homes that are turnkey and in a good school district will be in high demand, meaning there will probably be bidding wars,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of the building consultancy Zonda. “They will sell above asking price.”

However, real estate experts don’t predict a repeat of what we saw during the pandemic.

“I don’t think we’re going to see a return of buyers having to offer up their firstborn child to get a home,” says Sturtevant. “Sellers are still going to have the upper hand, but they’re going to have to negotiate.”

Sturtevant is seeing more seller concessions in the mid-Atlantic region. About a quarter of all sales included sellers providing the buyers with some cash for their closing, buying down their mortgage rates, or kicking in some money for repairs.

“For someone who is willing to accept an older home that needs more work, there is a bit more negotiating power,” says Wolf. “There will be opportunities for negotiating this spring season.”

Read more at Realtor.com

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From Surging Layoffs to a Presidential Election: What Will 2024 Bring for the Housing Market?

 
 

This year has barely begun, and it already seems destined for the history books.

The next 11 months are jam-packed with a combative presidential election, two large wars abroad, a string of high-profile companies announcing layoffs, and fears over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will be able to guide the U.S. economy to a soft landing.

How each of these concerns plays out this year will ultimately affect the fate of the housing market, which had largely been frozen last year due to high home prices and mortgage rates. Buying or selling a home is one of the largest financial transactions most people will ever make. If they are worried about the future, they might prefer to opt out of the housing market and stay put instead.

“In 2024, the only thing that is certain is uncertainty itself,” says Yelena Maleyev, a senior economist at KPMG. “Uncertainty slows the economy. It can slow or stop investment decisions or hinder consumer spending.”

It isn’t just buyer and seller psychology in play. What happens with the economy will influence which direction mortgage rates move next.

If rates go down, closing on a home might become a whole lot more affordable—if buyers still have jobs to fund these purchases. If rates rise, however, then the market could remain stuck in limbo.

“There are some concerns about what’s ahead,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “But these things don’t play out quickly.”

Could the presidential election stall home sales?

One of the most anticipated—or dreaded—events of this year is the U.S. presidential election.

It’s increasingly looking like there will be another showdown between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in November, although the Republican nominee hasn’t been decided just yet. But no matter who becomes the nation’s 47th president, the impact of the election will extend far beyond politics.

The possibility of a new administration with new policies and all of the anxiety that brings can cause some would-be buyers and sellers to hit the pause button, regardless of which party ticket they prefer.

But the election is typically more of a brief blip than something that causes lasting damage.

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of building consultancy Zonda.

By December, the market has usually returned to normal, she says.

As big of a deal as deciding who will lead America will be, a presidential election isn’t always the biggest thing going on in a year.

“Americans, I have no doubt, will pay a lot of attention to the election even if they’d rather watch anything else,” says Hale. “But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be the dominant factor in the economy.”

Take 2008, the year that Barack Obama was elected president. That was the same year that the housing market melted down, foreclosures swept the nation, and scores of builders went out of business.

Then there was 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic erupted. Initially, the housing market stalled but then picked up quickly as those stuck inside wanted larger homes and yards at the same time that mortgage rates dropped to record lows. Those larger homes were suddenly more affordable thanks to the lower rates.

“There’s a lot going on. A lot of those things could have contradictory impacts on not just the housing market, but the broader economy,” says Jacob Channel, LendingTree’s senior economist. “Where we sit right now, there are encouraging signs. … [But] there are no guarantees.”

Unemployment could hurt the housing market

Another threat to the housing market is a recession with widespread unemployment. Since March 2022, the Fed raised interest rates 11 times in its fight to bring down inflation. While the Fed plans to begin cutting rates this year as long as inflation continues to come down, economists are divided on whether the Fed will achieve its “soft landing.”

The news has been filled with companies with household names, such Google, Amazon, and UPS, announcing layoffs this year. The number of folks losing their jobs surged 136% from December to January, according to a recent report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

However, layoffs were down 20% year over year in January, according to the outplacement firm. And overall unemployment remained low, at 3.7% in January, according to federal unemployment data. (The data generally takes some time to catch up to what’s happening in the labor market.)

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good,” says Channel. “While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

When it comes to buying a home, though, perception might matter more than data. Those who are concerned about the stability of their jobs are a lot less likely to go home shopping.

“Job security is something that impacts consumer confidence,” says Hale. “If they’re not secure in their jobs, it’s hard to see them buying a house, which involves a big chunk of cash upfront and a commitment to pay your mortgage for 15 to 30 years.”

Ironically, there is an upside to rising unemployment. If unemployment ticks up uncomfortably high and the nation slips into a recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Mortgage rates, which are separate but generally follow the same trajectory, would be expected to fall as a result.

Those lower rates would make buying a home more affordable. Buyers with good jobs who had previously been priced out of homeownership could jump back into the housing market, giving it a jolt.

“Anything that inserts an element of uncertainty into financial markets could result in downward pressure on mortgage rates,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial.

Wars abroad could also affect the U.S. housing market

The deadly wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have the potential to affect the U.S. housing market, resulting in higher mortgage rates.

“If there are any natural resources and trade disruptions, that’s when it could impact the U.S. economy,” says Wolf. “It may cause higher costs.”

If the cost of goods and gasoline rises, then inflation will go back up. And hopes of the Fed cutting rates quickly, and mortgage rates coming down, could be dashed.

“Should conflicts in the Middle East escalate, we could see gas prices increase and inflation could reverse course,” says Channel.

Read more at Realtor.com

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