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As Featured in West + Main Home Magazine: Reviving Retro

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West + Main Agent Jenelle Brewer’s clients Matt Gaye and Maddie Allen-Sandoz

“It was the epitome of ‘starter house’”
— Jenelle Brewer

West + Main clients Matt Gaye and Maddie Allen-Sandoz bought this simple, early 80s ranch house just over 2 years ago with the help of agent Jenelle Brewer.

"It was the epitome of 'starter house', said Jenelle. “Totally livable, but pretty ugly! But...it was on a large corner lot near an area of town that has been getting improved upon over this same time period, super close to the Old Mill in Bend, Oregon and walkable to several breweries, too."

Q: What inspired your project?

A: After tying the knot in Philadelphia, we (Matt and Maddie) embarked on a 6-month cross-country road trip, searching for our next home. Bend, OR wasn't initially on our radar, but a friend's recommendation and our visit to this scenic town with a vibrant community won us over.

Q: How much did you invest in the renovation?

A: We purchased the house for $400,000 and have invested $150,000, plus our own sweat equity. Additional projects, including landscaping and bathrooms, are estimated to cost another $100,000.

Q: Any favorite vendors or shops you'd recommend?

A: Maddie's father, Scott Sandoz, a master craftsman, played a pivotal role. Good Wood from Portland provided reclaimed hardwoods for siding and flooring, while Willis Bigelow, a local artist, crafted unique furnishings. Seth Meeves of Raintree Plumbing helped with a sustainable greywater system. We're also sourcing artwork from local artists and furniture from Bend Upstyle and Gathered Wares.

We're thrilled with the result! While some adjustments were made, like changing cabinet colors and relocating the wood stove, they enhanced the final outcome. Our favorite aspects include the built-in sofa and shelves, the open layout of the kitchen and living room, and the cozy ambiance created by thoughtful design choices. Overall, the transformation exceeded our expectations.

 

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Things to do in Colorado this weekend: Aug. 16-18

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This weekend is all about peaches. 

The Palisade peach is in full harvest and all of Colorado is enjoying the bounty grown on the Western Slope. Fort Collins and Lafayette will honor Palisade with peach festivals of their own this weekend.

The summer isn't over yet as there are still plenty of outdoor fairs, block parties, and concerts to keep you entertained all weekend long. Festivals take place this weekend in Aurora, Lakewood, Greeley, Rocky Ford, Hayden, Denver, and Littleton.

Palisade Peach Festival

PALISADE — One of the country's most renowned peaches will be celebrated at the 56th annual Palisade Peach Festival this weekend. This year's Palisade Peach Festival celebrates 132 years of peaches in the western Colorado town. The festival offers food, live music, peach-eating contests, kids’ activities and recreation opportunities. Events planned for Friday and Saturday include food trucks, vendors, BBQ contest, peach-eating contest and live music.

Fort Collins Peach Festival

FORT COLLINS — You'll be able to wash down a peach pie or peach cobbler with a peach beer or peach margarita at Saturday's Fort Collins Peach Festival. The festival will also feature live music, food trucks and craft brewers. The free festival runs from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. Saturday at Civic Center Park.

Lafayette Peach Festival

LAFAYETTE — The 25th annual Lafayette Peach Festival honors the Palisade peach with peach pies, peach cobbler and peach smoothies. The festival runs Saturday from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. in Old Town Lafayette on Public Road. Food vendors, crafters, antique dealers and artists from Colorado and the western region will be on hand as well. Palisade Organic Peach Ranch, Morton's Orchards, Green Barn Fruit Co., and Tate Orchards will be providing 30,000 of pounds of peaches at the festival. More than 650 peach pies and pans of cobbler will be served while supplies last.

Global Fest

AURORA — Aurora's 11th annual Global Fest returns to the Aurora Municipal Center on Saturday from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. This multicultural event brings together the sights, sounds and flavors of nations from around the world to celebrate the diverse people and communities that call Aurora home. The festival will have two stages of musical and dance performances, food trucks, an international marketplace, parade of nations, fashion show, art displays and activities for children.

Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos

DENVER — The Broncos return home for their second preseason game on Sunday, hosting the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

This Week 2 preseason game will air on 9NEWS, 9NEWS.com and on the 9NEWS+ streaming app, for those in 9NEWS' viewing area. Coverage begins at 5:30 p.m. Sunday.

Longtime ESPN anchor Steve Levy will return as play-by-play commentator alongside returning color analyst Ryan Harris, a former Broncos offensive lineman and Super Bowl 50 champion. 9NEWS Sports anchor Scotty Gange and NFL Network analyst Cynthia Frelund will report from the sidelines.

Pikes Peak Regional Air Show

COLORADO SPRINGS — The U.S. Navy Blue Angels will headline the Pikes Peak Regional Air Show on Saturday and Sunday at the Colorado Springs Airport. Organizers said gates will open at 8:30 a.m. each day with flying beginning at 11 a.m. The Blue Angel are scheduled to fly at 2 p.m. each day. Tickets are available online at PPAirShow.org. Organizers said general admission tickets are sold out on Saturday.

Monster Day

GREELEY — Monster Day is back. Monster Day is family friendly celebration of all things "monster" in downtown Greeley. Monster Day is Saturday and features roaming costumed monsters, music, entertainment, face painting, costume contests, demonstrations, vendor booths and more. Come dressed up in your favorite monster costumes or just enjoy everyone else's. Greeley’s famous monster makers Distortions Unlimited will be on hand with some of their monstrous creations on display.

Routt County Fair

HAYDEN — The community of Routt County and visitors will come together this August weekend for the 111th annual Routt County Fair in Hayden. The exhibition hall at midway at the Routt County Fairgrounds opens Thursday at 8 a.m. with rabbit, goat, lamb and sheep shows, horse races, and bonfire. A demolition derby and beer garden are set for Friday and a concert by Eric Paslay begins Saturday at 8:30 p.m. The Lion’s Club Parade steps off at 10 a.m. Saturday in downtown Hayden. See the full fair schedule and entertainment lineup at RouttCountyFair.org.

Arkansas Valley Fair

ROCKY FORD — The 147th annual Arkansas Valley Fair opens Wednesday, and runs through Saturday at the Rocky Ford Fairgrounds. Friday is Parade Day with the Arkansas Valley Fair Grand Parade set to step off at 10 a.m. on downtown Main Street. A rodeo is planned for 7 p.m. Friday and the crunching of the demolition derby begins Saturday at 7:30 p.m. Front gate admission is free.

South by Southeast

DENVER  — The 7th annual South by Southeast community festival in Bible Park is Saturday from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Games and activities include cornhole, bubble tower, giant cup pong, kids' play area, a Denver fire truck, Denver Mounted Patrol, Shelby the Denver Police Therapy dog and photo booth.

Western Welcome Week

LITTLETON — Littleton residents have been holding this community celebration for 96 years. This year’s 10-day Western Welcome Week runs through Sunday. Saturday is Festival Day with a Grand Parade set to begin at 10 a.m. in downtown Littleton. There will also be an arts and crafts fair, kid's zone and carnival games.

Pueblo Pride 

PUEBLO — Mineral Palace Park is the site of the annual Pueblo Pride event. This weekend’s festival takes place from 10:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Sunday. The Pueblo Pride Parade steps off at 10:30 a.m. with a route through the park. There will be vendors, live entertainment, food and more.

National Aviation Day 

DENVER — Wings Over the Rockies Air & Space Museum is ready to celebrate National Aviation Day with "pay as you wish" admission on Saturday from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. There will be special Aviation Day activities including open cockpits, science demos, talks from the curator and volunteers, and scavenger hunts.

Denver Open Water Swim

LITTLETON — The Swim Across America charity event will take place at Chatfield Reservoir on Sunday. Proceeds support cancer research projects at Children's Hospital Colorado. A rolling start will begin at 8:10 a.m. There are .5 mile, 1 mile and 2 mile swim options.

Denver Parade of Homes

DENVER — The Denver Parade of Homes runs through Sunday, Aug. 25. The largest showcase of the latest in architecture and home design along the Front Range features newly designed model, custom homes by area residential builders located in neighborhoods throughout the Denver area. Attendees can see unique homes and floor plans, beautiful communities, the latest in interior design trends and home technology, exterior finishes and outdoor living, and landscaping that will inspire. Denver Parade of Homes is free and open to the public.

Tour when and where you want with options for on-demand virtual tours or in-person tours Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays from noon to 5 p.m. during the Parade. Download directions to participating homes at ParadeOfHomesDenver.com or download a print map here.

Gears & Beers Festival

MESA — The 8th annual Gears & Beers Festival at Powderhorn Mountain Resort is Saturday. Take a lift ride, drop into the bike park, join a downhill race or weekend youth program, and enjoy live music with local craft beverages.

Front Range Wine Festival

WINDSOR — The 12th annual Front Range Wine Festival runs from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday at Main Park in Windsor. The festival will feature wines from over 35 Colorado wineries, live music, food and retail vendors. General admission tickets include a commemorative wine glass, wine tote and unlimited tastings.

Tri-State Hot Rod Revival

JULESBURG — Julesburg’s 9th annual Tri-State Hot Rod Revival runs Friday to Sunday at the Julesburg Drag Strip. The strip holds the title of the oldest drag racing track in the country sanctioned by the NHRA. The weekend begins with a Friday night cruise along Main Street in Julesburg. Festivities planned for Saturday and Sunday include food vendors, live music and more.

Fort Collins Comic Con

FORT COLLINS — Fort Collins Comic Con is happening this weekend with two days of panels, classes, hands-on demos, open forums, lectures and screenings about movies, television, comics and books. Artists, writers, creators and vendors will be on hand. Fort Collins Comic Con will be held Friday to Sunday at the Fort Collins Senior Center. Tickets are on sale at FocoComicCon.com.

Silverthorne Sunday Art Stroll

SILVERTHORNE — The last Silverthorne Art Stroll of the season will be held Sunday from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Attendees can enjoy free performances from musicians and local artists selling their fares in downtown Silverthorne between Bluebird Market and the Art Spot Silverthorne Makerspace.

Wicked

DENVER — The stage musical adaption of "Wicked" is in Colorado for two more weekends. "Wicked" has performances planned through Sunday, Aug. 25, at the Buell Theatre in Denver. Currently the 4th longest-running show in Broadway history, "Wicked" celebrated its 20th anniversary on Broadway in 2023.

Twenty One Pilots

DENVER — Twenty One Pilots are launching their world tour in Colorado this weekend. The Grammy Award-winning duo will begin "The Clancy World Tour" at Ball Arena in Denver on Thursday and Friday. Comprised of Tyler Joseph and Josh Dun, Twenty One Pilots have amassed more than 33 billion streams worldwide and over three million tickets sold across several tours.

Jhené Aiko

DENVER — R&B star Jhené Aiko is performing her first headlining tour in five years. "The Magic Hour Tour" features a stop at Ball Arena in Denver this Saturday at 7 p.m. In 2020, Aiko received three Grammy Award nominations for her album "Chilombo." In 2022, Aiko performed “America the Beautiful” at Super Bowl LVI.

Phil Wickham & Brandon Lake Summer Worship Nights Tour

DENVER — Phil Wickham and Brandon Lake are in the second year of the "Summer Worship Nights Tour." The tour will be at Ball Arena in Denver at 7 p.m. Sunday. The show features special guest Hulvey. Tickets are on sale at Ticketmaster.com.

Race for Research 5K 

DENVER — Cancer League of Colorado presents the 28th annual Race for Research, a 5K run/walk, on Sunday at Denver’s Washington Park. Cancer League of Colorado is an all-volunteer non-profit organization dedicated to funding cancer research in Colorado. Runners and walkers will enjoy a 5K loop around Washington Park, a post-race expo, kids’ zone with games, craft beer garden, goodie bags and more. Register today at Race4Research.com.

Dog Day 5K

GLENWOOD SPRINGS — Colorado Animal Rescue is hosting the 12th annual Dog Day 5K in Glenwood Springs on Saturday. The 5K is a run/walk to support the animal rescue organization. Day-of race registration begins at 8 a.m. and the race begins at 9 a.m. at Two Rivers Park. Online race registration can be completed at ColoradoAnimalRescue.org.

Mt. Sneffels Half Marathon

OURAY — This weekend’s Mt. Sneffels Half Marathon, 10K and Kids Fun Run will be run in the “Switzerland of America” - Ouray, Colorado. The races support the Mount Sneffels Education Foundation. The event takes place Saturday with race amenities and finish line activities. Registration can be completed at MtSneffelsMarathon.com.

Water World

FEDERAL HEIGHTS — There are just three weekends left to visit the largest water park in Colorado. Water World is open daily through Sunday before the park moves to a weekend-only schedule through Labor Day weekend. Water World opens at 10 a.m. each day this weekend.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

DENVER — Coors Field will host three baseball games this weekend. The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies play Friday, Saturday and Sunday at the downtown Denver ballpark. Friday's game has a post-game Todd Helton-themed drone show. Those who arrive early to Saturday's 6:10 p.m. game can get a Todd Helton bobblehead.

Cody Johnson

GREENWOOD VILLAGE — Cody Johnson brings "The Leather Tour" at Fiddler's Green Amphitheatre on Friday and Saturday. The country music star will be joined by Tracy Bryd and Ty Myers at Friday's concert, with support from Ned LeDoux and Jesse Raub on Saturday. With a capacity of 18,000, Fiddler's Green Amphitheatre is the largest outdoor amphitheater in the Denver area. Located near Interstate 25 and East Orchard Road in the Denver Tech Center, the amphitheater offers chair-back and lawn seating.

Red Rocks

DENVER — There is no better venue for live music in the country than Colorado's Red Rocks Amphitheatre. The Red Rocks 2024 concert schedule is actually still growing with new concerts being added in October and November.

The Power of Poison

DENVER — The temporary exhibition at Denver Museum of Nature and Science "The Power of Poison" explores the captivating and often paradoxical world of nature's toxic arsenal. Through live performances and interactive dioramas, this exhibition will take you into familiar and novel tales of illness, enchantment and death by poison. Whether used as a defense against predators, a source of magical strength or a lifesaving medical treatment, "The Power of Poison" is sure to surprise.

The North Pole: Santa's Workshop

CASCADE — Colorado's favorite Christmas-themed amusement park is open for the season. Home to Santa's village and the jolly old elf himself, The North Pole: Santa’s Workshop, located at 7,500 feet at the foot of Pikes Peak west of Colorado Springs, traditionally opens the weekend before Memorial Day and remains open through Christmas. With vintage rides and sweet treats, the park as been spreading Christmas cheer since 1956.

Bright Nights at Four Mile Historic Park

DENVER — Four Mile Historic Park has transformed into a glowing landscape that immerses visitors with larger-than-life lantern installations that include a mythical dragon that blows smoke, Colorado wildlife and flowers, a crystal forest with unicorns, and creatures from Chinese mythology. The Bright Nights series will be open until Sept. 29. Proceeds from the installation go to help pay for animal care at the park, as well as maintain the historic museum, the oldest standing structure in Denver.

Read more at 9News.com

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Homebuyers Gear Up for a Mortgage Rate Drop This Fall: What To Know as the Housing Market Shifts

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Homebuyers who are gearing up to shop for a house this fall might wonder whether the mortgage rate gods will smile in their favor.

They’re right to ponder: Last October, rates hit a 23-year high of 7.79% for a 30-year fixed home loan, according to Freddie Mac.

Since then, rates have plunged to 6.47% for the week ending Aug. 8, the lowest they’ve been in over a year before ticking up slightly. The Realtor.com® 2024 midyear forecast predicts rates will dip further to 6.3% by year’s end.

Homebuyers should be happy to hear this, but the question remains: What will happen once mortgage rates continue to fall? And what else might shift in the housing market in ways buyers might not see coming—in terms of home prices, the number of homes for sale, and beyond?

Here’s what homebuyers can expect, and how they can prepare to make the most of this opportunity once lower rates hit.

Mortgage rates will likely decline gradually

Though mortgage rates have fallen since their peak in October 2023, they’re still way above the 2022 lows of around 3%.

In other words, the roller-coaster ride isn’t over.

“The drop has occurred largely as a result of encouraging signs that inflation is easing and that the Federal Reserve will be cutting the federal funds target rate sooner rather than later,” says Charlie Dougherty, director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.

The Fed had been raising interest rates since early 2022 to bring down inflation. In July, it signaled it would be cutting rates this fall in response to cooling inflation. Mortgage rates often move in the same direction as the Fed’s rates—so when the Fed lowers its rates, mortgage rates are likely to drop, too.

“We are going to see Fed rate cuts before the end of 2024, and they’re going to be bigger than we expected at the outset of the year,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale.

But homebuyers shouldn’t expect a radical overnight change.

“Roughly 86% of outstanding mortgages have a rate of 6% or below, meaning rates will need to continue to trend lower to see a fully reenergized housing market,” says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

Homes may not become more affordable

Potential homebuyers who’ve been hanging out on the sidelines, waiting for median home prices to drop alongside interest rates, may want to brace themselves: Prices are rising—as of now.

Indeed, the Realtor.com economic research team expects list prices to rise 4.6% by the end of the year. And falling mortgage rates just might be to blame.

“If lower mortgage rates spark more buyer demand than inventory can keep up with, then prices may climb once again, eliminating the impact of lower rates,” says Jones.

“Lower financing costs will likely boost demand by pulling affordability-crunched buyers off of the sidelines,” adds Dougherty.

In fact, for every 1% drop in mortgage rates, there are 5 million more households that qualify for homeownership, according to Seth Bellas, a Grand Rapids, MI–based branch manager for Churchill Mortgage.

What this means is that not only will more buyers start searching for homes, but many might also resort to offering over the asking price.

“Waived appraisals and shortened inspection timelines are also likely to make a comeback,” says Bryson Taggart, senior agent partnership manager for Opendoor. “The good news for buyers is that their power will increase, and they’ll be able to afford more house—they just might need to work harder for it.”

Homebuyers may have to put in more offers

On that note, if at first you don’t succeed, don’t give up.

“Once you’re up against the competition, don’t get discouraged. It can take multiple offers on a home before getting accepted,” says Taggart. “In 2020, I had a client who put in 16 offers before they were accepted. It was a tough journey, but their persistence landed them the home of their dreams.”

Buyers can prepare for the possibility of heightened competition by homing in on their preferences and budget, adds Jones.

Taggart says his best advice is to make sure to include closing costs and down payments in those parameters, and be realistic about what you can afford.

Lower rates could help unleash more homes on the market

Anyone who’s searched for a home over the past couple of years knows pickings have been slim. But one outcome of lower rates is the possibility of new housing stock—which has been steadily rising for months now.

Though overall housing inventory remains below pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in much of the U.S., there are more homes for sale than the same time last year. Realtor.com forecasts that housing stock will eventually climb by 14.5% annually in 2024.

“Lower rates and more for-sale inventory spell opportunities for buyers,” says Jones. “The summer is typically the busiest time of year in housing, but this fall may see an extra boost from shifting housing conditions.”

Pre-approved mortgage applications will start ‘waking up’

The best thing home shoppers can do is get pre-approved for a mortgage so they’re in a position to act on that perfect house the minute it hits the market.

“Planning ahead and getting one’s buying power firmed up early will give a potential homebuyer a leg up on those that are just thinking of preparing themselves,” says Tan Tunador, a vice president and senior loan officer for Atlantic Coast Mortgage.

“A young couple reached out last week asking what they needed to do to get pre-approved, and when I looked them up, their initial application was October 2021. But when they had applied in 2021, they quickly gave up due to rates and the low inventory,” says Tunador. “Recent positive news about mortgages brought them back into the market, and they were happy that we could use their original application.”

Tunador helped them freshen up their original application with a new credit report and updated income and asset documents. Now, they’re ready to go with a new pre-approval letter.

Note: How fast a buyer needs to act all comes down to location.

“Still-competitive Midwest and Northeast markets may require swift action, while markets such as Austin, TX, that are flush with inventory may allow more time for deliberation,” says Jones. “It is important to keep a pulse on the market to ensure you can submit a competitive offer and take advantage of falling rates.”

Buyers will trade high rates for a more challenging market

Once rates start to drop, it’s going to be a trade-off for homebuyers: rates versus competition.

“One of the most basic principles of economics is that when supply is limited and demand is heightened, the price of the goods increases,” says Taggart. “For buyers, we can anticipate increased competition that will drive up the prices of homes and make the homebuying process more stressful and difficult.”

In other words, homebuyers will find themselves essentially trading the frustration of having a higher mortgage rate for the frustration of competing in a more challenging market.

Potential buyers might once again be forced to consider risky moves like waiving a home inspection, adding an appraisal guarantee, and/or overbidding significantly to win a bid.

If you see a home you love, don’t wait

“The key is to act strategically in this evolving market,” says Cassandra Happe, an analyst for WalletHub. “Buyers should consider locking in deals at potentially lower prices now.”

“With the inventory of homes for sale still relatively low, finding the right home might still be the biggest challenge,” says Hale. “For that reason, if a shopper finds a home that fits their needs and is in budget, then it makes sense to move forward.”

Read more at Realtor.com

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These Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations Will Add the Most Value to Your Home

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Faced with the daunting unknowns and potential complications of large-scale renovations, many people immediately turn away from buying a fixer-upper.

In fact, a recent study by Frontdoor reports that offers for fixer-uppers halved from 2022 to 2023. But the high risk can come with a high reward. Frontdoor found that on average, those who take the leap of renovating a fixer-upper earn a 27.5% return on their investment. And that’s on top of the personal benefits gained from designing a home to your taste. 

Of course, without the appropriate planning and strategy, budgets tend to spiral out of control and many find out the hard way that some renovations don't pay off. To find out which home improvements are really worth your time and money, Frontdoor’s data team used information from Zillow, such as square footage and price (in conjunction with Kukun’s home remodeling cost estimator) to determine the most profitable home renovations. The vast majority of these turned out to be in the kitchen and in the bathroom—two rooms that can be key to increasing the value of your home. Keep reading to find out which renovations came out on top.

Most Valuable Kitchen Renovations

Cabinets

The kitchen is the heart of any home, so it’s no surprise that kitchen cabinets make a big impression on a prospective buyer. Whether you reface existing cabinets or install new semi-custom ones, the average increase in property value from this renovation alone is 3.63%, which comes out to around $7,510. This is by far the most profitable home renovation for fixer uppers, according to Frontdoor's findings. 

Appliances

Replacing mid-market branded appliances with higher-end alternatives creates a more luxurious and efficient kitchen with little effort. Buying new appliances for your fixer upper is set to increase your market value by 2.35%, or $4,922. 

Counters

Counters serve an important functional purpose, and they're also often a focal point of a kitchen. According to Frontdoor, switching your counters to granite, quartz, marble, or porcelain materials can increase the price of your home by 1.81%.  

Faucet and Sink

Again, switching out mid-market sinks with higher end options can have a significant impact on the appearance and, therefore, the price of your home. This type of renovation on average increases the home's value by 1.12%. 

Lighting

After making a bunch of renovations, why not give them a spotlight with installing new ceiling lights over the counters or sink? Adding these types of lighting could give you a 1% boost on selling price. 

Backsplash

Similar to your counters, the backsplash of your kitchen is an eye-catching detail that needs some attention. Adding a granite, quartz, marble, or porcelain backsplash can add .42% value onto your property.

Most Valuable Bathroom Renovations

Shower and Tub Surround Panels

Though bathroom renovations typically add less value than those in the kitchen, they can still add a four figure sum. Shower and tub surround panels will contribute the most to bathroom renovations, with an increase of .92% or $2,300. 

Faucet, Sink, and Toilet

Replacing an average faucet, sink, and toilet with a higher end option transforms the appeal and comfort of your bathroom, adding .61% value and potentially saving you from an old-pipe-induced plumbing disaster. 

Cabinets

Whether you're redoing your original cabinets with higher end materials or installing completely new ones, upgrading your bathroom cabinets can add .45% to its value. New cabinets are also an easy way to change up the aesthetic of your bathroom by introducing wood or color.

Read more at RealSimple.com

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Good News for Homebuyers: Inflation Drops Below 3% for First Time in 3 Years

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Inflation in the U.S. continued to cool last month, signaling imminent relief to homebuyers in the form of lower mortgage rates.

In the 12 months through July, the consumer price index rose 2.9%, according to data released by the Department of Labor on Wednesday. It marked the first time annual inflation has dropped below 3% since March 2021.

On a monthly basis, overall prices ticked up 0.2% from June. That gain was driven almost entirely by rising housing costs, which are reported on a delayed basis. Energy costs were flat on the month, and food prices rose modestly, ticking up 0.2% from June and 2.2% from one year ago.

For prospective homebuyers, the overall cooling of inflation toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target is good news for mortgage rates, which have already fallen in recent weeks. The central bank is now viewed as extremely likely to begin cutting its current benchmark rate of 5.3% when policymakers next meet in September.

“Today’s data has reassured markets that they will get a rate cut in September and December,” says Realtor.com® senior economist Ralph McLaughlin. “This should put downward pressure on mortgage rates this fall and winter and will set the stage for a much better season for homebuyers in 2025.”

Mortgage rates hit their lowest level in more than a year for the week ending on Aug. 8, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed dropping to 6.47%, according to Freddie Mac.

Typically, mortgage rates follow yields on the 10-year Treasury note, which move in response to investor expectations about inflation, the economy, and future Fed rate moves. Yields on the 10-year swung between slight gains and losses in choppy trading following the new inflation data on Wednesday morning.

The Realtor.com economic team now projects average mortgage rates will fall to 6.3% by the end of this year.

Housing costs are now the biggest driver of inflation figures

Rising shelter costs accounted for 90% of the overall monthly price increases reported from June to July—but there is a major caveat due to quirks in the way shelter costs are calculated.

Shelter accounts for more than a third of the overall consumer price index, but is reported on a delayed basis that can lag up to six months. Costs for homeowners are reported as “owner’s equivalent rent,” or the estimated cost to rent the homeowner’s primary residence.

It means that inflation data for shelter may primarily reflect changes in rental markets up to half a year ago, rather than real-time changes to actual monthly costs for homeowners, who account for two-thirds of the population.

 
 

"While shelter inflation is on a disinflationary path, it is a highly lagged input into CPI so its contributions don’t reflect the current slowdown we’re seeing in the housing market," says McLaughlin. "We anticipate that as the shelter pig works its way through the CPI python, we’ll continue to get better readings through the remainder of the year."

Some economists have argued that the way housing costs are calculated has artificially boosted inflation figures, potentially prompting the Fed to wait too long to cut its benchmark rate.

"Is it possible that the Fed is too late? Until this month, the Fed seems to have been laser-focused on inflation and progress toward the 2% target. But shelter has been an outsized contributor to the consumer price index," says Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant. "As the Fed has kept rates high, those higher rates have exacerbated housing costs by dampening new housing construction and increasing borrowing costs."

Sturtevant notes that, with housing costs removed from the index, the CPI has averaged just 1.7% since May 2023.

"Even with a rate cut and subsequent declines in mortgage rates, there will be some hesitant homebuyers out there who have had their finances stretched thin and have reached their affordability ceilings. The drop in rates could be too little, too late,” she says.

Could the Fed implement an emergency rate cut?

Recent economic data, including a disappointing July jobs report that sparked fleeting panic in the stock market, has spurred speculation that the Fed could issue an "emergency" rate cut before its next scheduled meeting on Sept. 18.

However, emergency rate cuts are rare and typically come only during times of extreme economic emergency.

Since the turn of the century, there have been seven emergency cuts: three in 2001 in response to the dot-com crash and the terror attacks of 9/11, and two each in response to the Great Recession in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Financial experts are skeptical that the Fed would take emergency action before September, unless the stock market crashes dramatically or key economic indicators take a sudden nosedive.

“The next few months remain critical, even without the emergency rate cut,” says Victor Kuznetsov, managing director of Imperial Fund in Miami. “So, while the Fed will not implement an emergency rate cut, it has signaled that it may consider a larger rate cut in the near future, possibly in September, depending on how the economy evolves over the next few months.”

Indeed, bond markets are now roughly evenly split on whether the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in September, or issue a larger half-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

A larger rate cut in September would likely prompt a sharper downward move for mortgage rates, spurring both more buyers and sellers to enter the market.

Read more at Realtor.com

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