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Gen Z still eager to buy homes, but getting weary

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Now in its fifth year, the 2025 ServiceLink State of Homebuying Report (SOHBR), released today, revealed that while Gen Z remains eager and ready to buy a home this year, high mortgage rates and home prices could deter them from crossing the finish line.

Out of Gen Z respondents, 67% said they plan to purchase a home this year compared to 51% of millennials, 49% of Gen X and 22% of baby boomers.

But Gen Z also led all respondents in their willingness to walk away under difficult buying conditions, as 58% said they abandoned the home-buying process in 2024, and 38% said they were unsuccessful in their attempt to purchase in the last four years.

ServiceLink’s annual survey analyzes generational trends among recent and prospective homebuyers, tracking housing market sentiment and their intentions to purchase, refinance or leverage home equity this year.

“These findings show that there is still a strong appetite for homeownership, particularly among the youngest generation, despite the ups and downs of today’s market,” said Dave Steinmetz, president, origination services at ServiceLink. “Today’s buyers need to be armed with information, while demonstrating patience and flexibility, [to] achieve their dream of homeownership. For lenders, this provides an opportunity to tap into technology and increase offerings that buyers indicate they want to see. Lenders also should focus on education and increasing transparency to meet the current needs of today’s buyers.”

Despite Gen Z’s waning tolerance for home-buying challenges, 41% of all respondents said that they believe conditions are favorable for buying a home this year. Gen Z led the way with 52% having a favorable outlook on the market, while only 23% of baby boomers felt the same.

Buyers’ willingness to buy with high mortgage rates is fading this year, ServiceLink found. Gen Z respondents reported having an average mortgage rate of 5.1% and said they would consider going as high as 5.8% — down from 6.3% last year.

Millennials are also becoming less open to higher rates, with their ceiling dropping to 5.5% from 6.2% in 2024. However, millennials are pulling back their desires to purchase a home, with 51% of millennials still planning to buy in 2025, down from 2024’s 59% and 2023’s 61%. Only 46% of millennials said conditions are favorable to buy in 2025, a pessimistic slip from 60% in 2023.

However, Gen X survey responses indicate a renewed interest in buying a home in 2025. This year, 49% of Gen X respondents said they plan to buy, up from 45% in 2024, 25% in 2023 and 12% in 2022.

Space and technology are hot commodities

Of the pool of respondents who plan on purchasing a home within the next year, 60% said they’re looking for a home with more space, a 17% uptick from a year ago, while 39% of respondents said they would like to see more physical space between homes.

Over half (51%) of respondents also cited small home size as a deal breaker. Other top deal breakers include higher taxes (48%), lack of privacy/homes too close together (43%) and lack of outdoor space (33%).

The respondents also have expectations of their lenders to be technologically savvy as they navigate their home purchase. The biggest benefits of mortgage technology, according to 59% of respondents, is the convenience and ease of use it provides, while 51% said they like that it saves them time and 45% enjoy the flexibility that it offers to make progress on their own schedule.

Many respondents (62%) cited eSigning technology as something they utilized during the home process. Baby boomers leveraged eSigning the most at 70% compared to 42% of Gen Z respondents.

Read more at Housingwire

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Mortgage applications climb as rates continue to decline

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Mortgage applications increased 11.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending March 7, 2025.

On an unadjusted basis, the index increased 12% compared to last week.

The refinance index saw a 16% uptick from the previous week and was 90% higher than the same week one year ago, largely driven by a dip in the 30-year fixed rate observed by the MBA.

The seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 7% last week while the unadjusted purchase index increased 8% compared with the previous week and was 4% higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates declined for the sixth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 6.67%, the lowest level since October 2024. As a result, applications increased over the week and were up 31% from a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “As we enter the spring homebuying season, the purchase index was more than 4% higher than a year ago, and activity was up across all loan categories. Government purchase applications experienced an 11% increase – helped by the FHA rate dropping to 6.34%. Additionally, average loan sizes were higher, with the purchase loan amount hitting $460,800, the highest in the survey dating back to 1990.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 45.6% of total applications from 43.8% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 7.2% of total applications.

By product, the FHA share of total applications decreased to 16.1% from 16.7% the week prior and the VA share of total applications increased to 15.9% from 14.6% during the same period. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.4% from 0.5% the week prior after remaining at 0.5% for several weeks.

While the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.67%, every other loan type saw rates decrease.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances also saw a decrease to 6.68% from 6.83%.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate FHA mortgages decreased to 6.34%

percent from 6.42%, and the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.04% from 6.12%.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 5.81% from 5.85%

Read more at Housingwire

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Spring Surge: Higher returns for sellers start in March, peak in late May

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Timing isn’t everything, but it certainly matters. Listing a home in the spring can yield sellers a significant financial advantage.

Home sale data from 2024 shows that sellers who listed their home in the last two weeks of May netted an additional 1.6% on the sale, about $5,600 on the typical U.S. home. Sellers generally get better-than-average returns if they list between March 15 and July 31, but many factors affect the timing premium.

The housing market has undergone significant changes in recent years, and it has shifted around the optimal time for sellers. While late-April/early-May was traditionally considered the prime selling season, this trend has been disrupted by a confluence of factors, most notably the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuating mortgage rates. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. Buyers pulled back as the year progressed and so only the earliest sellers were able to cash in. In 2023, buyers held out late into the season in the hope that rates would go down, drawing the peak selling season all the way to June.

In 2024, the housing market saw a period of relative stabilization, with less fluctuation in prices and a less pronounced impact of seasonality on sales outcomes. Without a major catalyst altering the seasonality, sellers were less rewarded (and less punished) for their timing, and listing performance followed a more normal cycle.

The best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. It was as early as the second half of March in Austin, San Diego, San Jose, and Seattle. In Phoenix, though, where sales started the year flat but ended 22% higher, it was the few sellers who listed in late November that actually saw the greatest rewards.

The sale price premium associated with listing at the local peak also varied widely. Major bonuses were found in San Jose (5.3%, $93,200), Los Angeles (3.9%, $39,300), and Cleveland (3.7%, $8,600), during peak seasons spread out from March through June. In less seasonal Orlando, however, homes only sold for 0.9% ($3,700) more during its early May peak period.

Timing a home sale around mortgage rates and local market dynamics is difficult and has varying benefits. This is one reason why it is so important for sellers to start working with an agent early, who can understand the individual home and when to market it in the local environment. The reality is most sellers don’t have the luxury of being able to wait for the right week and the right month to sell. Timing aside, sellers can still take advantage of other strategies to reach the most potential buyers. They can net top dollar by maximizing exposure, focusing on screen appeal, and highlighting in-demand features.

Methodology: 

This analysis included 1.6 million transactions closed in 2024 for which complete data was available, including a listing history that could be matched to the transaction and a reliable Zestimate history. We calculate a premium by first establishing a non-seasonal benchmark for the expected sale price of homes. This benchmark is based on the Zestimate from 6 months before the sale, adjusted by the change over the following 6 months in smoothed and seasonally adjusted metro-level ZHVI over the following 6 months. The median ratio of the actual sale price to this benchmark for homes listed in a specific period is then compared to the median ratio for the entire year.

Read more at Zillow

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Weekly mortgage demand surges 20% higher, after interest rates drop to the lowest since last year

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A sharp drop in mortgage interest rates finally lit a fire under loan demand. Both current homeowners and potential homebuyers jumped back into the market, after a lackluster showing for this year so far.

Total mortgage application volume jumped 20.4% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. This was not only the first increase in three weeks, but it is an outsized weekly move.

Mortgage rates were clearly the culprit. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.73% from 6.88%, with points falling to 0.60 from 0.61, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the lowest level since December 2024.

“Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S.,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist, in a release. “Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024.”

Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly moves in interest rates, jumped 37% for the week and were 83% percent higher than the same week one year ago. While the vast majority of borrowers today still have loans with rates well below what is being offered today, more recent buyers from the last two years are now able to benefit from a refinance.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 9% for the week but were still just 2% higher than the same week one year ago.

“This is a period where we typically see purchase activity ramp up and purchase applications were up over the week and continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, more green shoots as we head into the spring homebuying season,” Kan added.

While the weekly jump in purchase volume is certainly positive, it is still historically low. Buyers are up against high home prices, limited inventory and more uncertainty about the overall economy. The new tariffs levied on China, Canada and Mexico are widely expected to raise home prices, especially for new construction.

Mortgage rates moved very slightly lower to start this week, according to a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily. Tuesday, when the tariffs went into effect, the stock and bond markets rode a roller coaster, with bond yields, which mortgage rates follow, dropping along with stocks.

“As the day progressed, stocks and bonds bounced back in the other direction and the move was big enough for most mortgage lenders to reprice back toward slightly higher rates,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. 

Read more at CNBC

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Here’s how tariffs will hit the U.S. housing market

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From lumber to drywall to appliances to finishings, much of what goes into a U.S. home comes from outside American borders.

The cost of those products is about to go up, as President Donald Trump’s administration imposes tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. Goods from China are now subject to a 20% tax, an increase from a previous 10% tax, and those from Canada and Mexico face a 25% tax. Canadian lumber was already subject to separate duties of 14.5%.

The new tariffs could increase builder costs anywhere from $7,500 to $10,000 per home, said Rob Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, citing estimates from U.S. homebuilders. Last year the NAHB estimated that every $1,000 increase in the median price of a new home prices out roughly 106,000 potential buyers.

The greatest impact to homebuilders will be from lumber cost increases, which are expected to total about $4,900 per home on average, according to Leading Builders of America, the trade group representing most of the nation’s publicly traded homebuilders.

Roughly a third of the lumber used in U.S. homebuilding comes from Canada, and domestic lumber producers are expected to raise their prices to match the imported supply.

“Since Trump first imposed the tariffs on Feb. 1, which were then delayed, we’ve seen some increase in buying with prices for Western Spruce-Pine-Fir two-by-fours increasing 13%,” said Paul Jannke, principal at Forest Economic Advisors. “With the re-imposition of the 25% tariff on Canadian goods shipped to the U.S., we expect Canadian producers will stop shipping lumber to the U.S. Meanwhile, dealers, who have been hesitant to buy given uncertainty around the tariffs, will need to step up purchases ahead of the coming building season. This will drive prices higher.”

Lumber futures are up 5% in the past week and were rising steadily Tuesday.  

Trump on Saturday issued an executive order to increase domestic lumber production through a streamlining of regulatory and permitting processes. The homebuilding industry took that as a win.

“A stable and affordable supply of lumber is critically important for our industry to address the country’s housing supply crisis,” wrote Ken Gear, CEO of the LBA, in a statement. “The domestic lumber industry cannot meet current demand, so we applaud President Trump for exploring opportunities to increase domestic supply as a long term solution.”

The NAHB, which represents small to mid-sized private builders, “welcomed” the move, but said in a statement, “Any additional tariffs on lumber could further increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices.”

As for ramping up domestic production immediately, that’s easier said than done. Jannke estimates it would take up to three years to build multiple new mills. He explained that there are a limited number of companies that manufacture sawmill machinery and even fewer, perhaps one or two, that can build a mill top to bottom. 

High demand during the first years of the Covid-19 pandemic, when homebuilders were going gangbusters, had lumber producers rushing to expand.

“However, so many folks wanted to build [or] expand mills, that the lead times from equipment manufacturers moved out to two years,” Jannke said. “On top of that, once a mill was built, labor had to be found to operate the mill. These mills are in rural areas that tend not to have the skilled labor force needed to operate a modern sawmill. This added another year before the mill was operating at full capacity.”

The labor force, from logging to hauling, is already lean and decreasing. Opening up new land and deregulating the industry is one thing, but finding the workers to bring U.S. lumber to market is another.

“In the short term it is going to be very volatile from a pricing perspective,” said Kyle Little, chief operating officer at Melville, New York-based Sherwood Lumber. As for increasing production, “that won’t be a flip of a switch. You’re taking a 40-year supply chain and trying to switch overnight – that’s hard.”

Homebuying landscape

Beyond lumber, the homebuilding industry is subject to rising costs across the sector.

China is the market leader in household appliances. And, the majority of drywall, or gypsum, used in both commercial and residential construction is imported from other countries. In 2023, the U.S. imported $215 million in gypsum, becoming the largest importer of the product in the world, according to OEC World, a trade data platform. It primarily comes from Spain, Mexico and Canada.

“Rising costs due to tariffs on imports will leave builders with few options. They can choose to pass higher costs along to consumers, which will mean higher home prices, or try to use less of these materials, which will mean smaller homes,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Hale noted that while new construction will see the biggest impact, tariffs will change the landscape of the housing market overall, including existing homes.

“We may see buyers’ willingness to pay rise for existing homes as newly built homes get pricier, which would mean rising prices for existing homes, too. We may also see a lower appetite for major remodeling projects that would rely on these tariff affected inputs, hamstringing the ability of consumers to remake their homes to fit their current needs,” she added.

While costs for home construction will certainly rise, the Trump administration is touting lower mortgage interest rates in the past few weeks. The average rate on the 30-year fixed hit its most recent high of 7.26% on Jan. 13, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now down to about 6.64%.

“I think thus far, one of the biggest wins for the American people is since Election Day, and since Inauguration, mortgage rates have come down dramatically,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview Tuesday on Fox News.

Bessent noted the spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates narrowed, though that spread has in fact widened significantly since Trump took office.

The tariffs come at a time when the U.S. housing market is already under pressure. Signed contracts on existing homes dropped to the lowest level on record in January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales of newly built homes fell 10% in January, compared with December, according to the U.S. Census. And prices are still stubbornly high, with the inventory of homes for sale still historically low.

Read more at CNBC

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